What are UK interest rates and when will they fall? (2024)

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What are UK interest rates and when will they fall? (1)

By Kevin Peachey & Tom Espiner

BBC News

The Bank of England has held interest rates at 5.25% for the fourth time in a row, but cuts are expected later in the year.

Interest rates move up and down in order to control UK inflation, which has come down sharply in recent months, easing cost-of-living pressures.

However, the UK economy has been stagnating amid increased borrowing costs and other pressures.

Interest rates set by the Bank of England affect mortgage, credit card and savings rates for millions of people across the UK.

What are interest rates and why do they change?

The Bank of England's base rate, currently 5.25%, is what it charges other lenders to borrow money.

This has a knock-on effect on what other banks charge their customers for loans such as mortgages, as well as the interest they pay on savings.

It has a target to keep UK inflation at 2%. Inflation is the rate at which prices are rising across the economy as a whole.

When inflation is going up, the Bank may decide to raise rates to encourage people to spend less. The idea is that this helps bring inflation down by dampening demand.

Once this starts to happen, the Bank may hold rates, or cut them.

How do interest rates affect me?

Mortgages

Just under a third of households have a mortgage, according to the government's English Housing Survey.

When interest rates rise or fall, more than 1.4 million people on tracker and standard variable rate (SVR) deals usually see an immediate change in their monthly payments.

About three-quarters of mortgage customers have fixed-rate deals. Their monthly payments aren't immediately affected when the Bank changes rates, but future deals are.

Although mortgage rates have been lower recently, they are still much higher than they have been for much of the last decade.

This means homebuyers and those remortgaging will have to pay a lot more than if they had taken out the same mortgage a few years ago.

About 1.6 million deals will expire in 2024, according to banking trade body UK Finance.

You can see how your mortgage may be affected by interest rate changes by using our calculator:

  • If you can't see the calculator, click here.
  • What happens if I can't afford to pay my mortgage?
  • Five ways to save money on your mortgage

Credit cards and loans

Bank of England interest rates also influence the amount charged on credit cards, bank loans and car loans.

Lenders could decide to put their rates up, if they expect higher interest rates from the Bank of England, but if rates fall, interest payments may get cheaper.

Image source, Getty Images

Savings

The Bank of England interest rate also affects how much savers can earn on their money.

Individual banks and building societies have been under pressure to pass on higher interest rates to customers.

There are some good deals on the market, so analysts say that customers should shop around, as money may be in accounts paying little or no interest.

The UK's financial watchdog warned banks will face "robust action" if they offer unjustifiably low savings rates to their customers.

When will UK interest rates go down?

The Bank rate is currently at its highest level for nearly 16 years.

However, the rate was higher than this for much of the 1980s and 1990s, and was running at 17% in November 1979.

After the latest meeting of policymakers, there were plenty of questions about why interest rates have not been cut, with the rate of inflation dropping sharply.

Inflation was running at 4% in January 2024. While that was down from a peak of 11.1% in October 2022, it is still twice the Bank's target.

Bank governor Andrew Bailey said it would wait for firm evidence that inflation was under control before it cuts rates.

The Bank has to balance the need to slow price rises against the risk of damaging the economy - which has shown little sign of growth - by keeping rates high.

  • When will the Bank of England start to cut interest rates?

Are other countries raising their interest rates?

Interest rates have also been increasing across the world.

However, in recent months, other central banks - including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank - have also paused their rate rises.

The UK has had one of the highest interest rates in the G7 - the group representing the world's seven largest so-called "advanced" economies.

  • How will the UK economy compare to other countries in 2024?

Related Topics

What are UK interest rates and when will they fall? (2024)

FAQs

How long will UK interest rates stay high? ›

The latest forecasts are for UK interest rates to start to go down from around August or September 2024, where financial markets are pricing in around 2 cuts to the UK Interest Rate from 5.25% at the start of 2024 to 4.75% by the end of 2024.

Will interest rates go down by 2024 UK? ›

On 21 March 2024, the Bank of England held the base rate at 5.25% for the fifth time in a row. Financial markets are currently predicting the first cut in interest rates will be in June 2024, falling to around 3% by the end of 2025, according to the latest forecasts from Capital Economics.

Do interest rates go down in a recession UK? ›

A recession typically means that interest rates will fall to make it easy to borrow money and credit in a way that should help encourage spending.

What is the next interest rate for the Bank of England? ›

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 20 March 2024, the MPC voted by a majority of 8–1 to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25%.

What will happen to UK interest rates in the next 5 years? ›

2025/2026 UK Interest Rate Predictions

Lowest Projection for Q1 2025: 30 Rates forecasts 3.5%. Highest Projection for Q4 2025: The Bank of England predicts interest rates in 2025 will stabilise at 3.4%. Lowest Lowest Projection for Q4 2025: 30 Rates anticipates a significant drop to 1.75%.

What are interest rate predictions for the next 5 years? ›

Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years

ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.

Where will UK interest rates be in 2025? ›

The Bank will lower the base interest rate to 3% by the end of 2025, according to analysis by research firm Capital Economics. This is more optimistic than projections from Berenberg Bank that said rates would fall to 4% by the end of next year.

Will mortgage rates ever be 3% again? ›

It's possible that rates will one day go back down to 3%, though if current trends hold that's not likely to happen anytime soon.

What are the interest rates predicted in 2026 UK? ›

It expects a rate of 5.1% for 2024, one of 4.5% for 2025 and a rate of 4.2% for 2026.

Where should I put money in a recession UK? ›

What to invest in during a recession
  1. Consumer staples: Some of the best stocks to buy in a recession focus on everyday goods and services, such as groceries or healthcare products. ...
  2. Technology: Digital industries tend to be more adaptable during periods of economic difficulty.
Mar 4, 2024

Is the UK in a cost of living crisis? ›

The cost of living crisis refers to a period of time during which the cost of everyday essentials like food and bills increases more quickly than average household income. The UK has been experiencing a cost of living crisis since late 2021.

Is Germany in a recession? ›

Germany's Economy Probably Is in Recession

Similarly, the Economy Ministry said most research institutes “expect GDP to fall again in the first quarter of 2024.”

Which bank gives 7% interest on savings accounts in the UK? ›

First Direct

What bank in England has the highest interest rate? ›

Easy-access accounts – what we'd go for
Top standard easy-access accounts. Here are the highest paying traditional savings accounts.
Monument Bank5.01%
Principality BS5% (max two withdrawals a year, rate drops to 4.85% after 12 months)
Kent Reliance4.96%
Cynergy Bank4.95% (rate drops to 3.75% after 12 months)
7 more rows
2 days ago

What is the current interest rate in the UK? ›

The current Bank of England base rate is 5.25%.

Then the rises began. From December 2021 to August 2023, the Bank's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the base rate 14 consecutive times to its current level of 5.25%.

What will the interest rates be in the UK in 2030? ›

Bank of England official nominal interest rates will rise linearly to 4% by 2030 (i.e., just over 25bp of hikes per year). This resting point for interest rates reflects a combination of long-term real GDP growth of 2% plus 2% inflation.

What will mortgage rates be in 2024 in the UK? ›

By Q4 2024, we expect the average mortgage rate on a 75% 5-year fixed product to fall to 3.82%, down from 4.86% in Q4 2023.

How long will interest rates stay elevated? ›

Mortgage rates are expected to decline when the Federal Open Market Committee cuts the benchmark interest rate, which is likely to happen in the second half of 2024. But as long as inflation runs hotter than the Fed would like, rates will remain elevated at their current levels.

How much longer will interest rates keep rising? ›

Official interest rates will come down when inflation reaches the RBA target band of 2% to 3%, most likely in November 2024. Inflation is gradually decreasing in 2024.

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