Does the 4% rule work for today’s retirement? (2024)

FAQs

Does the 4% rule work for today’s retirement? ›

The 4% rule entails withdrawing up to 4% of your retirement in the first year, and subsequently withdrawing based on inflation. Some risks of the 4% rule include whims of the market, life expectancy, and changing tax rates. The rule may not hold up today, and other withdrawal strategies may work better for your needs.

This rule is based on research finding that if you invested at least 50% of your money in stocks and the rest in bonds, you'd have a strong likelihood of being able to withdraw an inflation-adjusted 4% of your nest egg every year for 30 years (and possibly longer, depending on your investment return over that time).

That means that retirees could safely withdraw as much as 3.3% as an initial spending rate and still have a 90% probability of success to have more than sufficient funds for a 30-year retirement. That bumped up to 3.8% in Morningstar's 2022 study, and back to 4% as a safe withdrawal rate for 2023.

The 4% rule is a reasonable baseline, but it also has serious drawbacks. Among them: Retirees often want to vary their spending during retirement. Many people don't retire for three decades. Market conditions affect how much you can safely withdraw.

Ivanna Hampton: New retirees could kick off their golden years with a familiar number, 4%. A trio of Morningstar researchers analyzed starting safe withdrawal rates from an investment portfolio to fund retirement. The future looks good, and a little flexibility could make it even better.

However, not a huge percentage of retirees end up having that much money. In fact, statistically, around 10% of retirees have $1 million or more in savings. The majority of retirees, however, have far less saved.

If you have $400,000 in the bank you can retire early at age 62, but it will be tight. The good news is that if you can keep working for just five more years, you are on track for a potentially quite comfortable retirement by full retirement age.

Safe Withdrawal Rate

Using our portfolio of $400,000 and the 4% withdrawal rate, you could withdraw $16,000 annually from your retirement accounts and expect your money to last for at least 30 years. If, say, your Social Security checks are $2,000 monthly, you'd have a combined annual income in retirement of $40,000.

Bottom Line. With $100,000 you should budget for a retirement income of around $5,000 to $8,000 on top of Social Security, depending on how you have invested your money. Much more than this will likely cause you to run out of money within 25 – 30 years, which is potentially within the lifespan of the average retiree.

Where does the 4 rule come from? ›

The 4% rule was developed in 1994 by the financial advisor William Bengen¹ to provide a conservative plan to make sure retirement savings last.

The 4% rule comes with a major caveat: It's not really a “rule” since everyone's situation is different. If you have a large retirement investment portfolio, you might not need to spend 4% of it every year. If you have limited savings, 4% might not come close to covering your needs.

“This rule protects the retirement investors from improper investment recommendations and harmful conflicts of interest. Retirement investors can now trust that their investment advice provider is working in their best interest and helping to make unbiased decisions.”

The No-Go Years

This is a time when physical and cognitive abilities decline and may become more pronounced. Many retirees in this phase will experience increased reliance on support from family, caregivers or assisted living facilities.

Like any basic rule of thumb, this one comes with plenty of qualifications and exceptions, but it can be a useful place to start. Now, 4% of $4 million is $160,000, so as long as you expect your retirement to last for about 30 years and that amount sounds like enough-or more than enough-for you, you're in a good place.

One example is the $1,000/month rule. Created by Wes Moss, a Certified Financial Planner, this strategy helps individuals visualize how much savings they should have in retirement. According to Moss, you should plan to have $240,000 saved for every $1,000 of disposable income in retirement.

Around the U.S., a $1 million nest egg can cover an average of 18.9 years worth of living expenses, GoBankingRates found. But where you retire can have a profound impact on how far your money goes, ranging from as a little as 10 years in Hawaii to more than than 20 years in more than a dozen states.