It may seem as if Peloton — one of the biggest stock-market winners in the early part of the coronavirus pandemic — has only recently crashed and burned. But the stock’s price actually peaked in January 2021 and had fallen 79% through the end of 2021.
Peloton Interactive Inc. PTON is very much in-play. See here:
- Peloton stock continues rally as company replaces John Foley as CEO
- Peloton confirms CEO change, cost cuts reducing workforce by one-third
- Peloton stock rockets to biggest gain on record amid reported deal interest, but not all analysts are sold
During the earlier stages of the pandemic, investors seeing stocks such as Zoom Video Communications Inc. ZM and DocuSign Inc. DOCU rocketing during lockdowns realized they couldn’t go up forever. But they also didn’t know how long the initial lockdown period would last, and they might have been afraid of missing out. Investors or traders might have scored tidy profits if they jumped on the bandwagon and got off in time.
Getting back to Peloton, the share price price more than doubled during the first half of 2020. So that sets the stage for a screen of stocks that have gone through pandemic boom-and-bust cycles.
Pandemic winners transform into losers
The screen begins with the Russell 1000 Index RUI, which includes the largest American companies that are publicly traded, weighted by market capitalization.
Among the Russell 1000, 20 stocks doubled in price, at least, from the end of 2019 through June 20, 2020. Among those, 15 were down at least 50% from their pandemic intraday highs through the close on Feb. 7, 2022.
Here they are, sorted by how much they have declined from those highs:
| Company | Ticker | Decline from pandemic high | Price increase – Dec. 31, 2019, through pandemic high | Date of intraday high since Dec. 31, 2019 | Price increase – Dec. 31, 2019, through June 30, 2020 |
| Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A | PTON | -83% | 502% | 01/14/2021 | 103% |
| Fastly Inc. Class A | FSLY | -80% | 580% | 10/13/2020 | 324% |
| Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A | ZM | -76% | 765% | 10/19/2020 | 273% |
| Teladoc Health Inc. | TDOC | -76% | 268% | 02/16/2021 | 128% |
| Plug Power Inc. | PLUG | -72% | 2289% | 01/26/2021 | 160% |
| Novavax Inc. | NVAX | -71% | 8234% | 02/09/2021 | 1994% |
| DraftKings Inc. Class A | DKNG | -71% | 595% | 03/22/2021 | 211% |
| Quidel Corp. | QDEL | -69% | 309% | 08/06/2020 | 198% |
| Moderna Inc. | MRNA | -68% | 2443% | 08/10/2021 | 228% |
| Wix.com Ltd. | WIX | -67% | 196% | 02/19/2021 | 109% |
| DocuSign Inc. | DOCU | -62% | 325% | 08/10/2021 | 132% |
| Wayfair Inc. Class A | W | -62% | 308% | 01/14/2021 | 119% |
| Twilio Inc. Class A | TWLO | -57% | 365% | 02/18/2021 | 123% |
| Etsy Inc. | ETSY | -56% | 595% | 11/26/2021 | 140% |
| Cloudflare Inc. Class A | NET | -52% | 1199% | 11/18/2021 | 111% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||
Click on the tickers for more about each company.
You should alsoreadTomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.
As to whether you should consider buying any of these stocks in hopes of a rebound, it might be best to look beyond trading momentum and buzz, and turn toward fundamentals. You might consider likely the companies are to continue or resume a steady growth path leading to consistent profits.
Read: Netflix vs. Facebook: Which is the better stock after those shocking earnings?
Leaving the group in the same order, here are projected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales through calendar 2023. We’re using calendar-year estimates because some of the companies have fiscal years that don’t match the calendar. Since we’re still in earnings season, the figures for 2021 are also consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet:
| Company | Ticker | Two-year estimated sales CAGR | Estimated sales – 2021 ($mil) | Estimated sales – 2022 ($mil) | Estimated sales – 2023 ($mil) |
| Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A | PTON | 15.6% | $4,062 | $4,534 | $5,426 |
| Fastly Inc. Class A | FSLY | 19.6% | $349 | $417 | $499 |
| Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A | ZM | 17.8% | $3,960 | $4,677 | $5,492 |
| Teladoc Health Inc. | TDOC | 25.4% | $2,025 | $2,575 | $3,181 |
| Plug Power Inc. | PLUG | 66.3% | $497 | $906 | $1,375 |
| Novavax Inc. | NVAX | 33.7% | $1,365 | $4,942 | $2,441 |
| DraftKings Inc. Class A | DKNG | 41.5% | $1,269 | $1,901 | $2,542 |
| Quidel Corp. | QDEL | -31.8% | $1,574 | $985 | $733 |
| Moderna Inc. | MRNA | -16.1% | $18,020 | $21,499 | $12,694 |
| Wix.com Ltd. | WIX | 20.9% | $1,273 | $1,529 | $1,859 |
| DocuSign Inc. | DOCU | 25.0% | $2,034 | $2,564 | $3,175 |
| Wayfair Inc. Class A | W | 14.0% | $13,766 | $15,166 | $17,885 |
| Twilio Inc. Class A | TWLO | 30.8% | $2,767 | $3,660 | $4,731 |
| Etsy Inc. | ETSY | 20.4% | $2,297 | $2,764 | $3,331 |
| Cloudflare Inc. Class A | NET | 35.2% | $648 | $891 | $1,183 |
| Source: FactSet | |||||
Aside from Quidel Corp. QDEL and Moderna Inc. MRNA, the companies are expected to achieve double-digit growth rates for sales over the next two years.
Most of the companies weren’t profitable during 2021. Here are consensus estimates for earnings per share through calendar 2023:
| Company | Ticker | Estimated EPS – 2021 | Estimated EPS – 2022 | Estimated EPS – 2023 |
| Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A | PTON | -$1.77 | -$1.97 | -$0.76 |
| Fastly Inc. Class A | FSLY | -$0.55 | -$0.49 | -$0.29 |
| Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A | ZM | $4.72 | $4.41 | $4.76 |
| Teladoc Health Inc. | TDOC | -$3.24 | -$1.82 | -$1.26 |
| Plug Power Inc. | PLUG | -$0.57 | -$0.26 | -$0.06 |
| Novavax Inc. | NVAX | -$12.56 | $29.31 | $13.68 |
| DraftKings Inc. Class A | DKNG | -$3.61 | -$2.45 | -$1.62 |
| Quidel Corp. | QDEL | $16.12 | $8.73 | $3.89 |
| Moderna Inc. | MRNA | $27.27 | $28.13 | $13.04 |
| Wix.com Ltd. | WIX | -$1.39 | -$1.43 | -$0.39 |
| DocuSign Inc. | DOCU | $1.89 | $2.14 | $2.72 |
| Wayfair Inc. Class A | W | $2.58 | $1.60 | $4.28 |
| Twilio Inc. Class A | TWLO | -$0.25 | -$0.03 | $0.32 |
| Etsy Inc. | ETSY | $3.03 | $3.48 | $4.64 |
| Cloudflare Inc. Class A | NET | -$0.05 | $0.02 | $0.10 |
| Source: FactSet | ||||
Companies on the list expected to swing to calendar-year profitability this year or in 2023 include Novavax Inc. NVAX, Twilio Inc. TWLO and Cloudflare Inc. NET.
Here’s a summary of ratings and consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet:
| Company | Ticker | Share “buy” ratings | Share neutral ratings | Share “sell” ratings | Closing price – Feb. 7 | Cons. price target | Implied 12-month upside potential |
| Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A | PTON | 52% | 42% | 6% | $29.75 | $46.54 | 56% |
| Fastly Inc. Class A | FSLY | 8% | 77% | 15% | $26.91 | $37.22 | 38% |
| Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A | ZM | 50% | 47% | 3% | $141.44 | $265.83 | 88% |
| Teladoc Health Inc. | TDOC | 57% | 40% | 3% | $74.53 | $129.48 | 74% |
| Plug Power Inc. | PLUG | 76% | 24% | 0% | $21.46 | $43.33 | 102% |
| Novavax Inc. | NVAX | 71% | 29% | 0% | $94.80 | $250.00 | 164% |
| DraftKings Inc. Class A | DKNG | 59% | 38% | 3% | $21.50 | $50.41 | 134% |
| Quidel Corp. | QDEL | 75% | 25% | 0% | $96.40 | $171.33 | 78% |
| Moderna Inc. | MRNA | 43% | 52% | 5% | $160.27 | $272.73 | 70% |
| Wix.com Ltd. | WIX | 71% | 29% | 0% | $119.38 | $228.50 | 91% |
| DocuSign Inc. | DOCU | 54% | 41% | 5% | $118.41 | $195.44 | 65% |
| Wayfair Inc. Class A | W | 34% | 50% | 16% | $141.24 | $244.76 | 73% |
| Twilio Inc. Class A | TWLO | 94% | 6% | 0% | $195.78 | $358.46 | 83% |
| Etsy Inc. | ETSY | 67% | 28% | 5% | $135.66 | $239.83 | 77% |
| Cloudflare Inc. Class A | NET | 48% | 47% | 5% | $107.10 | $156.94 | 47% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
More than half of the analysts rate Peloton a “buy” or the equivalent. Twilio is the analysts’ favorite, with 94% favorable ratings.
Don’t miss:
