T-Bill Yields Are Projected to Decline. What Should Income Investors Do? (2024)

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, which will vary. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Treasury Securities are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government as to payment of principal and interest if held to maturity. Interest income on these securities is exempt from state and local taxes. “Forward rate” is an interest rate applicable to a financial transaction that will take place in the future.

*Shown for illustrative purposes only. Assumes a U.S. taxable investor who pays U.S. Federal income tax rates at the highest current marginal rate of 37.0% and the 3.8% Medicare surcharge tax on income. There are limitations to presenting tax-equivalent yields including, but not limited to (i) they do not show the effect of state and local taxes, which will vary; and (ii) each individual taxpayer may possess unique circ*mstance that could alter the computation of tax-equivalent yields. Thus “tax-equivalent yields” are only intended to represent mathematical illustrations and not actual returns to any investor. Prospective investors cannot rely on this illustration as it is not possible to invest directly in an index, and not every investor would have the same return experience in investable products or strategies. See disclosures at the end of this document for information related to comparisons to an index and index descriptions.

This illustration and nothing herein constitute tax advice. The information contained herein should not be used as a substitute for advice from your tax advisor. Neither

MacKay Municipal ManagersTM nor MacKay Shields LLC advise clients on tax matters. Consult your tax advisor for further information.

Important Disclosure

Availability of this document and products and services provided by MacKay Shields LLC, MacKay Shields UK LLP and MacKay Shields Europe Investment Management Limited (collectively, “MacKay Shields”) may be limited by applicable laws and regulations in certain jurisdictions and this document is provided only for persons to whom this document and the products and services of MacKay Shields may otherwise lawfully be issued or made available. None of the products and services provided by MacKay Shields are offered to any person in any jurisdiction where such offering would be contrary to local law or regulation. This document is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and should not be construed as an offer to buy securities. The contents of this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

This material contains the opinions of certain professionals at MacKay Municipal ManagersTM but not necessarily those of MacKay Shields LLC. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and opinions contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and MacKay Shields assumes no duty and does not undertake to update forward-looking statements. No part of this document may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of MacKay Shields LLC. ©2023, MacKay Shields LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Comparisons to an Index

Comparisons to a financial index are provided for illustrative purposes only. Comparisons to an index are subject to limitations because portfolio holdings, volatility and other portfolio characteristics may differ materially from the index. Unlike an index, portfolios are actively managed and may also include derivatives. There is no guarantee that any of the securities in an index are contained in any managed portfolio. The performance of an index may assume reinvestment of dividends and income, or follow other index-specific methodologies and criteria, but does not reflect the impact of fees, applicable taxes or trading costs which, unlike an index, may reduce the returns of a managed portfolio. Investors cannot invest in an index. Because of these differences, the performance of an index should not be relied upon as an accurate measure of comparison.

“Bloomberg®”, “Bloomberg Indices®”, Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices, Bloomberg Equity Indices and all other Bloomberg indices referenced herein are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the indices (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by MacKay Shields LLC (“MacKay Shields”). Bloomberg is not affiliated with MacKay Shields, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend MacKay Shields or any products, funds or services described herein. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to MacKay Shields or any products, funds or services described herein.

The following indices may be referred to in this document:

Definitions:

Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index: A rules-based, market-value-weighted index engineered for the long-term tax-exempt bond market. To be included in the index, bonds must be rated investment-grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by at least two of the following agencies: Moody's, S&P, Fitch. If only two of the three agencies rate the security, the lower rating is used to determine index eligibility. If only one of the three agencies rates a security, the rating must be investment-grade. They must have an outstanding par value of at least $7 million and be issued as part of a transaction of at least $75 million. The bonds must be fixed rate, have a date-date after December 31, 1990, and must be at least one year from their maturity date. Remarketed issues, taxable municipal bonds, bonds with floating rates, and derivatives, are excluded from the benchmark. The index has four main sectors: general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds (including all insured bonds with a Aaa/AAA rating), and pre-refunded bonds. Most of the index has historical data to January 1980. In addition, sub-indices have been created based on maturity, state, sector, quality, and revenue source, with inception dates later than January 1980.

Bloomberg Municipal 3 Year Index: The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index is a rules-based, market-value-weighted index engineered for the long-term tax-exempt bond market. To be included in the index, bonds must be rated investment-grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by at least two of the following ratings agencies: Moody's, S&P, Fitch. If only two of the three agencies rate the security, the lower rating is used to determine index eligibility. If only one of the three agencies rates a security, the rating must be investment-grade. They must have an outstanding par value of at least $7 million and be issued as part of a transaction of at least $75 million. The bonds must be fixed rate, have a dated-date after December 31, 1990, and must be at least one year from their maturity date. Remarketed issues, municipal bonds, bonds with floating rates, and derivatives, are excluded from the benchmark. This index is the 3 Year (2-4) component of the Municipal Bond index.

About risk

Municipal bond risks include the ability of the issuer to repay the obligation, the relative lack of information about certain issuers, and the possibility of future tax and legislative changes, which could affect the market for and value of municipal securities. Bonds subject to interest rate risk and can lose principal value when interest rates rise. Bonds are also subject to credit risk which is the possibility that the bond issuer may fail to pay interest and principal in a timely manner. Diversification cannot assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.

Impact investing and/or Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) managers may take into consideration factors beyond traditional financial information to select securities, which could result in relative investment performance deviating from other strategies or broad market benchmarks, depending on whether such sectors or investments are in or out of favor in the market. Further, certain ESG strategies may limit exposures found in similar strategies or broad market benchmarks, which could also result in relative investment performance deviating. There is no assurance that employing ESG strategies will result in more favorable investment performance.

For more information
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MacKay Municipal Managers is a trademark of MacKay Shields LLC.

MacKay Shields LLC is an affiliate of New York Life Investments. “New York Life Investments” is both a service mark, and the common trade name, of certain investment advisors affiliated with New York Life Insurance Company. Securities are distributed by NYLIFE Distributors LLC, 30 Hudson Street, Jersey City, NJ 07302, a wholly owned subsidiary of New York Life Insurance Company. NYLIFE Distributors LLC is a Member FINRA/SIPC.

5764879

NOTE TO UK AND EUROPEAN AUDIENCE

This document is intended only for the use of professional investors as defined in the Alternative Investment Fund Manager’s Directive and/or the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s Conduct of Business Sourcebook. To the extent this document has been issued in the United Kingdom, it has been issued by MacKay Shields UK LLP, 80 Coleman Street, London, UK EC2R 5BJ, which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. To the extent this document has been issued in the EEA, it has been issued by MacKay Shields Europe Investment Management Limited, Hamilton House, 28 Fitzwilliam Place, Dublin 2 Ireland, which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.

NOTE TO CANADIAN AUDIENCE

The information in these materials is not an offer to sell securities or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction of Canada. In Canada, any offer or sale of securities or the provision of any advisory or investment fund manager services will be made only in accordance with applicable Canadian securities laws. More specifically, any offer or sale of securities will be made in accordance with applicable exemptions to dealer and investment fund manager registration requirements, as well as under an exemption from the requirement to file a prospectus, and any advice given on securities will be made in reliance on applicable exemptions to adviser registration requirements.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE

Availability of this document and products and services provided by MacKay Shields LLC, MacKay Shields UK LLP and MacKay Shields Europe Investment Management Limited (collectively, “MacKay Shields”) may be limited by applicable laws and regulations in certain jurisdictions and this document is provided only for persons to whom this document and the products and services of MacKay Shields may otherwise lawfully be issued or made available. None of the products and services provided by MacKay Shields are offered to any person in any jurisdiction where such offering would be contrary to local law or regulation. This document is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and should not be construed as an offer to buy securities. The contents of this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

This material contains the opinions of certain professionals at MacKay Municipal Managers TMbut not necessarily those of MacKay Shields LLC. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and opinions contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and MacKay Shields assumes no duty and does not undertake to update forward-looking statements. No part of this document may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of MacKay Shields LLC. ©2023, MacKay Shields LLC. All Rights Reserved.

MacKay Municipal Managers is a trademark of MacKay Shields LLC.

MacKay Shields LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of New York Life Investment Management Holdings LLC, which is wholly owned by New York Life Insurance Company. "New York Life Investments" is both a service mark, and the common trade name of certain investment advisers affiliated with New York Life Insurance Company. Investments are not guaranteed by New York Life Insurance Company or New York Life Investments.

COMPARISONS TO AN INDEX

Comparisons to a financial index are provided for illustrative purposes only. Comparisons to an index are subject to limitations because portfolio holdings, volatility and other portfolio characteristics may differ materially from the index. Unlike an index, portfolios are actively managed and may also include derivatives. There is no guarantee that any of the securities in an index are contained in any managed portfolio. The performance of an index may assume reinvestment of dividends and income, or follow other index-specific methodologies and criteria, but does not reflect the impact of fees, applicable taxes or trading costs which, unlike an index, may reduce the returns of a managed portfolio. Investors cannot invest in an index. Because of these differences, the performance of an index should not be relied upon as an accurate measure of comparison.

“Bloomberg®”, “Bloomberg Indices®”, Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices, Bloomberg Equity Indices and all other Bloomberg indices referenced herein are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the indices (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by MacKay Shields LLC (“MacKay Shields”). Bloomberg is not affiliated with MacKay Shields, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend MacKay Shields or any products, funds or services described herein. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to MacKay Shields or any products, funds or services described herein.

The following indices may be referred to in this document:

definitions

Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index

A rules-based, market-value-weighted index engineered for the long-term tax-exempt bond market. To be included in the index, bonds must be rated investment-grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by at least two of the following agencies: Moody's, S&P, Fitch. If only two of the three agencies rate the security, the lower rating is used to determine index eligibility. If only one of the three agencies rates a security, the rating must be investment-grade. They must have an outstanding par value of at least $7 million and be issued as part of a transaction of at least $75 million. The bonds must be fixed rate, have a date-date after December 31, 1990, and must be at least one year from their maturity date. Remarketed issues, taxable municipal bonds, bonds with floating rates, and derivatives, are excluded from the benchmark. The index has four main sectors: general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds (including all insured bonds with a Aaa/AAA rating), and pre-refunded bonds. Most of the index has historical data to January 1980. In addition, sub-indices have been created based on maturity, state, sector, quality, and revenue source, with inception dates later than January 1980.

Bloomberg Municipal 3 Year Index

The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index is a rules-based, market-value-weighted index engineered for the long-term tax-exempt bond market. To be included in the index, bonds must be rated investment-grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by at least two of the following ratings agencies: Moody's, S&P, Fitch. If only two of the three agencies rate the security, the lower rating is used to determine index eligibility. If only one of the three agencies rates a security, the rating must be investment-grade. They must have an outstanding par value of at least $7 million and be issued as part of a transaction of at least $75 million. The bonds must be fixed rate, have a dated-date after December 31, 1990, and must be at least one year from their maturity date. Remarketed issues, municipal bonds, bonds with floating rates, and derivatives, are excluded from the benchmark. This index is the 3 Year (2-4) component of the Municipal Bond index.

当資料は、一般的な情報提供のみを目的としています。

当資料は、投資助言の提供、有価証券その他の金融商品の売買の勧誘、または取引戦略への参加の提案を意図するものではありません。

また、当資料は、金融商品取引法、投資信託及び投資法人に関する法律または東京証券取引所が規定する上場に関する規則等に基づく開示書類または運用報告書ではありません。New York Life Investment Management Asia Limitedおよびその関係会社は、当資料に記載された情報について正確であることを表明または保証するものではありません。

当資料は、その配布または使用が認められていない国・地域にて提供することを意図したものではありません。

当資料は、機密情報を含み、お客様のみに提供する目的で作成されています。New York Life Investment Management Asia Limitedによる事前の許可がない限り、当資料を配布、複製、転用することはできません。

New York Life Investment Management Asia Limited

金融商品取引業者 登録番号 関東財務局長(金商)第2964 号

一般社団法人日本投資顧問業協会会員

一般社団法人第二種金融商品取引業協会会員

About Risk

Municipal bond risks include the ability of the issuer to repay the obligation, the relative lack of information about certain issuers, and the possibility of future tax and legislative changes, which could affect the market for and value of municipal securities. Bonds subject to interest rate risk and can lose principal value when interest rates rise. Bonds are also subject to credit risk which is the possibility that the bond issuer may fail to pay interest and principal in a timely manner.

Diversification cannot assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.

Impact investing and/or Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) managers may take into consideration factors beyond traditional financial information to select securities, which could result in relative investment performance deviating from other strategies or broad market benchmarks, depending on whether such sectors or investments are in or out of favor in the market. Further, certain ESG strategies may limit exposures found in similar strategies or broad market benchmarks, which could also result in relative investment performance deviating. There is no assurance that employing ESG strategies will result in more favorable investment performance.

“New York Life Investments” is both a service mark, and the common trade name, of certain investment advisors affiliated with New York Life Insurance Company.

T-Bill Yields Are Projected to Decline. What Should Income Investors Do? (2024)

FAQs

T-Bill Yields Are Projected to Decline. What Should Income Investors Do? ›

In our view, prudent investors should start proactively managing re-investment risk, which is the possibility that their cash flows cannot be invested at the previously attainable rate.

Is now a good time to buy T-bills? ›

Right now, the 3-month Treasury bill rate is 5.25% while the 30-year Treasury rate is 4.58%. So, if you're looking for a risk-free way to earn interest on your cash over a short period of time, investing in a T-bill could be a good choice.

Are Treasury bills really risk-free? ›

The interest rate on a three-month U.S. Treasury bill (T-bill) is often used as the risk-free rate for U.S.-based investors. The three-month U.S. Treasury bill is a useful proxy because the market considers there to be virtually no chance of the U.S. government defaulting on its obligations.

Why are T-bills going down? ›

T-bill prices tend to rise when the U.S. Federal Reserve is engaged in an expansionary monetary policy by purchasing Treasurys. Conversely, T-bill prices fall when the Fed sells its debt securities.

What happens when a Treasury bill matures on TreasuryDirect? ›

We sell Treasury Bills (Bills) for terms ranging from four weeks to 52 weeks. Bills are sold at a discount or at par (face value). When the bill matures, you are paid its face value. You can hold a bill until it matures or sell it before it matures.

Is there a downside to T-bills? ›

The biggest downside of investing in T-bills is that you're going to get a lower rate of return compared to other investments, such as certificates of deposit, money market funds, corporate bonds or stocks. If you're looking to make some serious gains in your portfolio, T-bills aren't going to cut it.

Should I sell my Treasury bills? ›

Treasury securities are considered a safe and secure investment option because the full faith and credit of the U.S. government guarantees that interest and principal payments will be paid on time. Also, most Treasury securities are liquid, which means they can easily be sold for cash.

Is it possible to lose money on Treasury bills? ›

The federal government has never defaulted on an obligation, and it's universally believed it never will. Investors who hold T-bills can rest assured that they will not lose their investment. T-Bills are considered a zero-risk investment thanks also to Treasury market liquidity.

Are T-bills better than CDs? ›

If you're saving for a goal less than a year away: If you're saving money for a goal with a short-time horizon, T-bills can make more sense than CDs. They provide a higher APY than savings accounts, and they're more liquid than CDs.

Do you pay capital gains on Treasury bills? ›

Are Treasury bills taxed as capital gains? Normally no. However, if you buy a T-bill in the secondary market and then achieve a profit, you may be liable for capital gains depending on your exact purchase price.

What is the forecast for T-bills? ›

Mr Wong from Bondsupermart is sticking to his forecast for the yields of six-month T-bills to range between 3.7 per cent and 3.9 per cent in 2024.

What is the yield on the T bill in 2024? ›

The yield on the 10-year note ended May 31, 2024 at 4.51%, the 2-year note ended at 4.89%, and the 30-year at 4.65%. Here is a table showing the yields' highs and lows and the FFR since 2007.

How to make money on T-bills? ›

You buy bills at a discount — a price below par — and profit from the difference at the end of the term. While T-bills don't pay interest like other Treasurys, the difference between your discounted price and the par value is essentially the "interest" earned.

Can Treasury bills lose value if held to maturity? ›

Treasury bonds, notes, and bills have no default risk since the U.S. government guarantees them. Investors will receive the bond's face value if they hold it to maturity.

How to ladder T-bills? ›

As each T-bill matures, take the principal and reinvest it into a new T-bill with a maturity matching your spacing. After the first 12-month bill matures, buy another 12-month to keep the ladder going. Continue reinvesting your maturing principal into new T-bills further out on the yield curve to maintain your ladder.

What day of the week should I buy Treasury bills? ›

Treasury Bills

Except for holidays or special circ*mstances, the offering is announced on Tuesday, the bills are auctioned on Thursday, and they are issued on the following Tuesday.

What is the forecast for the T-bills? ›

Median Forecasts for 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate is at 4.16%, compared to 4.50% last quarter and 5.26% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 3.83%.

How much will I make on a 3 month treasury bill? ›

3 Month Treasury Bill Rate is at 5.25%, compared to 5.25% the previous market day and 5.10% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 4.19%.

What are T-bills paying today? ›

Treasury securities
This WeekMonth Ago
Ten-Year Treasury Constant Maturity4.264.42
182-day T-bill auction avg disc rate5.1655.16
One-Year MTA5.1735.153
Two-Year Treasury Constant Maturity4.684.86
4 more rows

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