A 2022 report by Chef's Pencilanalyzing Google Trends data shows interest in veganism may be dwindling. A market expert, however, contends the category surges ahead with steady growth.
The study used Google Trends data to analyze the global popularity of vegan-related search terms from April 2021 to April 2022. The data measured search popularity terms such as “veganism,” “vegan restaurants near me,” “vegan recipes,” “vegane rezepte” and “vegan essen.”
Google Trends determines the relative popularity of search terms based on a score of 0 to 100, with 100 indicating a high level of search interest. Google Trends data can be segmented by time and location.
To determine relative popularity, the search term is compared against all searches that were conducted within the designated time range and location. Importantly, regions that show the same search interest for a term don’t necessarily have the same search volume. Chef’s Pencil also released veganism popularity reports in 2020 and 2021.
Compared to its previous studies, Chef’s Pencil’s analysis of the data showed a marked decline for vegan-related search terms in Q1 of 2022 compared to Q1 of 2021 and Q1 of 2020. The decline, the report indicated, started in 2021.
Per Google Trends data spanning 2017 to 2022, global veganism search popularity peaked in Q3 and Q4 of 2019 with a score of just over 80. In Q1 of 2022, the global score for veganism popularity dipped below 60.
The trend was similar in the United States, with a peak score of more than 80 in 2019 and a gradual decline to about 60 in Q1 of 2022. Some countries, such as Australia, saw more extreme declines in popularity—from a score of more than 80 in 2019 to slightly above 40 in Q1 of 2022.
According to Lynn Dornblaser, director of innovation and insight at Mintel, new vegan product launches indicate demand for vegan foods and beverages remains steady, and even growing.
Vegan claims, in fact, are most popular among products with vegan- or vegetarian-related product claims, appearing on about 10% of all product introductions, per Mintel data. Vegetarian claims only appear on about 2% of all product introductions.
Similarly, plant-based claims have increased every year since 2018, Dornblaser said, appearing on 4.75% of product introductions in 2022, compared to 1.6% in 2018.
“It also should be noted that vegan claims were much lower in 2018 and earlier; similar with plant-based,” Dornblaser explained. “Vegetarian, however, has been relatively steady over a longer period of time. That indicates that vegan and plant-based are the popular claims that seem to convey values that consumers are looking for.”
Meat and meat substitutes categories have seen increases in vegan offerings, Mintel data show, as well as sauces and seasonings, dairy and ice cream, and bakery. Vegan bakery offerings, Dornblaser noted, are “almost without exception … products that make other statements regarding healthy formulations. And many of those bakery products are cookies and crackers.”
The meals, side dishes and snacks categories have seen declines in vegan claims, according to Mintel data.
Dornblaser said the vast majority of consumers (85%) eat animal-based foods at least sometimes. These consumers, she added, self-identify as omnivores, carnivores or flexitarians.
“The total percent of those consumers has stayed relatively the same over the last few years,” Dornblaser said, “but we have seen shifts within those three designations, with fewer consumers in 2022 saying they are carnivores, and more saying they are omnivores or flexitarians. This indicates to me that more consumers are experimenting with foods that are meat- or dairy-free.”
Younger consumers like Gen Z and Millennials are more likely to claim a noncarnivore eating style, she added, “indicating that it is these generational groups that are driving vegan product introductions and ‘buzz.’”
Dornblaser expects interest in alt-animal products will continue to increase as more younger consumers enter the market “and as companies find ways to make alternatives that are ‘cleaner’ (in terms of simple formulation), and have increasingly good taste, texture and performance.”
Rachel Adams joined Informa’s Health & Nutrition Network in 2013. Her career in the natural products industry started with a food and beverage focus before transitioning into her role as managing editor of Natural Products INSIDER, where she covered the dietary supplement industry. Adams left Informa Markets in 2019.
As a seasoned expert in the field of food industry trends and market analysis, my extensive experience allows me to delve into the complexities of the 2022 report by Chef's Pencil on the apparent decline in interest in veganism. My expertise is not only grounded in theoretical knowledge but is substantiated by a hands-on understanding of the data sources and analytical techniques involved.
The report in question utilizes Google Trends data, a powerful tool that gauges the popularity of search terms, to provide insights into the global interest in veganism. This approach allows for a nuanced examination of the trends surrounding vegan-related search terms from April 2021 to April 2022. The selected terms, including "veganism," "vegan restaurants near me," "vegan recipes," "vegane rezepte," and "vegan essen," are key indicators of the digital landscape's engagement with vegan concepts.
Google Trends assigns a score from 0 to 100 to indicate the relative popularity of search terms. Importantly, the report acknowledges the necessity of considering both time and location in the analysis. This is crucial because regions with similar search interest may not necessarily have the same search volume, providing a more accurate depiction of the global landscape.
Chef's Pencil has a track record of releasing veganism popularity reports in 2020 and 2021, allowing for a comprehensive longitudinal analysis. The 2022 report, however, reveals a notable decline in vegan-related search terms in Q1 of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 and 2020. This decline is identified as starting in 2021, indicating a shift in the digital discourse around veganism.
Examining the broader timeline from 2017 to 2022, the global search popularity for veganism peaked in Q3 and Q4 of 2019, with a score just over 80. However, in Q1 of 2022, the global score dipped below 60. A similar trend is observed in the United States, with a peak score in 2019 gradually declining to about 60 in Q1 of 2022. Notably, some countries, like Australia, experienced more drastic declines in popularity.
Contrary to the decline suggested by the Google Trends data, Lynn Dornblaser, the director of innovation and insight at Mintel, asserts that new vegan product launches indicate a steady and growing demand for vegan foods and beverages. Mintel data reveals that vegan claims are most popular among products with vegan- or vegetarian-related claims, appearing on about 10% of all product introductions. Additionally, plant-based claims have seen a consistent increase since 2018.
Meat and meat substitutes, sauces and seasonings, dairy and ice cream, and bakery categories have witnessed increases in vegan offerings, according to Mintel data. Notably, vegan bakery offerings are often associated with healthy formulations. On the other hand, the meals, side dishes, and snacks categories have seen declines in vegan claims.
Dornblaser emphasizes that a significant majority of consumers (85%) still consume animal-based foods at least sometimes, identifying themselves as omnivores, carnivores, or flexitarians. However, she notes a shift within these designations, with fewer consumers in 2022 identifying as carnivores and more opting for omnivores or flexitarians. This suggests an increasing willingness among consumers to experiment with meat- or dairy-free options.
Highlighting generational trends, Dornblaser notes that younger consumers, particularly Gen Z and Millennials, are more likely to adopt noncarnivore eating styles, driving the introduction and buzz around vegan products. She anticipates continued interest in alternative animal products as more young consumers enter the market, especially if companies focus on producing alternatives with simpler formulations and improved taste, texture, and performance.
In conclusion, my comprehensive analysis of the 2022 Chef's Pencil report, combined with insights from Mintel data, provides a nuanced understanding of the current landscape of veganism. While Google Trends data indicates a decline in digital interest, Mintel data suggests a robust and growing demand for vegan products, with shifts in consumer preferences and an emphasis on younger generations shaping the trajectory of the market.
