MANILA, PHILIPPINES — Rice production in the Philippines in 2022-23 will stay flat with last year’s record at 12.4 million tonnes, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Rice imports of 2.8 million tonnes will be 200,000 tonnes lower than 2021-22.
Wheat imports are forecast to decline 3% to 6.3 million tonnes because of rising prices and supply issues as a result of the conflict in the Black Sea.
Consumption for 2022-23 is down 350,000 tonnes, to 6.25 million tonnes, due to high wheat prices. Feed demand is estimated at 2.4 million tonnes, down 300,000 tonnes.
“Factors include the ongoing Black Sea conflict and efforts by local feed millers to replace wheat with barley because of rising feed wheat prices,” the USDA said. “Uncertainty also remains in hog feed demand due to ongoing African swine fever spread.”
Corn is expected to supplement some feed wheat demand, while milling wheat consumption is seen slightly declining for more affordable rice.
The USDA expects 2022-23 corn imports will rise 50,000 tonnes to 750,000 tonnes, as feed wheat prices are elevated by the Ukraine conflict. Corn production in 2022-23 is forecast at 8.3 million tonnes, rebounding after the previous year’s subpar growing conditions in three out of the five top corn regions.
In analyzing the article on the Philippines' agricultural forecasts, my expertise in agricultural economics and global commodity markets allows me to dissect the various components at play here.
Firstly, the USDA report serves as a credible source in this domain, providing valuable insights into the production, imports, and consumption patterns of key staples like rice, wheat, and corn. The report’s mention of the projected rice production maintaining a flat trend at 12.4 million tonnes from the prior year's record aligns with the challenges and limitations faced by the Philippines in increasing agricultural output.
The anticipated decrease in rice imports by 200,000 tonnes compared to the previous year is indicative of potential self-sufficiency efforts or a balance in domestic production and import dependency.
The impact of the Black Sea conflict on wheat imports is a critical aspect. The forecasted decline in wheat imports by 3% to 6.3 million tonnes highlights the susceptibility of global wheat markets to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.
Moreover, the shift in feed millers' strategies from wheat to barley due to escalating feed wheat prices corroborates the intricate dynamics between various grains in feed formulation. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding African swine fever and its influence on hog feed demand add complexity to these forecasts.
The projected rise in corn imports by 50,000 tonnes to 750,000 tonnes is an interesting facet. It reflects both the increased demand for corn as a substitute for elevated-priced feed wheat and the anticipation of recovering corn production after previous suboptimal growing conditions in significant corn-growing regions.
This comprehensive view of rice, wheat, and corn dynamics in the Philippines underlines the multifaceted interplay between domestic production, global market dynamics, geopolitical conflicts, and shifting consumer demands, all of which collectively shape the country's agricultural landscape.
