The latest developments in the third quarter of 2023
In the fourth quarter of 2023, imports decreased by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter while exports increased by 0.7%. The level of exports increased for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2022 while the level of imports decreased for the last five quarters in a row. Consequently the EU trade in goods balance rose from €19 billion in the third quarter of 2023 to €33 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, having been in deficit from the fourth quarter of 2021 until the second quarter of 2023.
Figure 1: EU trade in goods, quarterly data from Q1 2019 to Q3 2023
(€ billion, seasonally adjusted data)
Source: Eurostat (ext_st_eu27_2020sitc)
Figure 2 shows the change in% in the fourth quarter of 2023 with respect to the previous quarter for each product group. When ranking imports by value, the highest decrease was found in machinery and vehicles (€-10.2 billion, -5.0%) while energy (€4.9 billion, 3.8%) increased most. Exports decreased most for chemicals (€-2.7 billion, -2.1%) and increased most for machinery and vehicles (€4.1 billion, 1.6%).
Figure 2: EU trade by product group, Q4 2023
(% growth rates compared with the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted data)
Source: Eurostat (ext_st_eu27_2020sitc)
Figure3 shows the trade balance by product group. In the fourth quarter of 2023 the surpluses for machinery & vehicles, chemicals, food & drink, other goods and other manufactured goods were larger than the deficits for energy and raw materials. The cause for the resulting overall trade surplus was the relatively low price for energy products. Between the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2023, the opposite had happened when high energy prices caused a large trade deficit for energy that outweighed surpluses in other product groups.
Figure 3: EU trade balance by product group, Q1 2019 to Q4 2023
(€ billion, seasonally adjusted data)
Source: Eurostat (ext_st_eu27_2020sitc)
Extra-EU trade by partners
The impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already led to significant changes in the share of imports from the main partners because of several sanctions directly and indirectly affecting the trade of oil, natural gas, coal and other products. The impact of this is shown in Figure 4. Between the first quarter of 2022 and the most recent trade figures for the fourth quarter of 2023, the share of imports from Russia decreased by 7.6percentage points (pp). In the same period the share of imports from China decreased by -1.9pp, while the share of imports from the United States (+3.4pp) and Switzerland (+0.2pp) increased. Between the third and fourth quarter of 2023, the share of imports from the United Kingdom decreased by -0.6pp, while the share of imports from the United States (+0.4pp) increased. In the same period shares for China, Switzerland and Russia did not change much.
Figure 4: EU imports of goods from main partners, Q1 2022 and Q4 2023
(% of extra-EU imports, seasonally adjusted data)
Source: Eurostat (ext_st_eu27_2020sitc)
As far as the EU exports by main partners are concerned, the imposition of restrictions led to a decline in Russia's share (-1.9pp) from 3.2pp in the first quarter of 2022 to 1.4pp in the fourth quarter of 2023 (see Figure5). During the same period, the share for China fell by -1.0pp while the shares in the EU's exports of goods to the United States (+1.1pp), United Kingdom (+0.5pp) and Switzerland (+0.2pp) increased. Between the third fourth and quarter of 2023, the share of exports to the United States increased by 0.5pp while exports to the other main partners did not change much.
Figure 5: EU exports of goods to main partners, Q1 2022 and Q4 2023
(% of extra-EU exports, seasonally adjusted data)
Source: Eurostat (ext_st_eu27_2020sitc)
In the fourth quarter of 2023 with respect to the previous quarter, the imports of energy products by main partner did not show significant changes (see Figure6). Imports from the United Kingdom (-€1.3 billion) dropped, imports from Norway (+€1.4 billion), Russia (+€0.6 billion) and the United States (+€0.3 billion) all increased. However, when looking at the time series, very large fluctuations are visible. In particular, from the second quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2022, rising prices caused large increases in the value of imports of energy products from Russia which was by far the largest origin of EU imports. In conrast, since August 2022, energy prices have decreased progressively and in the fourth quarter of 2023, imports of energy products from Russia, which continued to be the main partner until the fourth quarter of 2022, decreased by €37.2 billion with respect to the first quarter of 2022, due to the combined effect of falling prices and import restrictions.
Figure 6: EU imports of energy products by partner, Q1 2019 to Q4 2023
(€ billion, seasonally adjusted data)
Source: Eurostat (ext_st_eu27_2020sitc)
In the fourth quarter of 2023 Russia's share in imports of energy was only one-seventh of the combined share of the United States, Norway and United Kingdom (see Figure7). This was a large decrease compared with the first quarter of 2019, when Russia was by far the largest partner, its share being 1.5 times more than that of the United States, Norway and the United Kingdom combined. Russia's invasion of Ukraine changed this trade set-up profoundly, with falling shares for EU's imports from Russia. Already in the first quarter of 2022, the combined share of the United States, Norway and United Kingdom equalled that of Russia.
Figure 7: EU imports of energy products by partner, Q1 2019 to Q4 2023
(share of extra-EU in%, seasonally adjusted data)
Source: Eurostat (ext_st_eu27_2020sitc)
Source data for tables and graphs
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Data sources
EU data is taken from Eurostat's COMEXT database. COMEXT is the reference database for international trade in goods. It provides access not only to both recent and historical data from the EU Member States but also to statistics of a significant number of non-EU countries. International trade aggregated and detailed statistics disseminated via the Eurostat website are compiled from COMEXT data according to a monthly process.
Data are collected by the competent national authorities of the EU Member States and compiled according to a harmonised methodology established by EU regulations before transmission to Eurostat. For extra-EU trade, the statistical information is mainly provided by the traders on the basis of customs declarations.
EU data are compiled according to EU guidelines and may, therefore, differ from national data published by the EU Member States. Statistics on extra-EU trade are calculated as the sum of trade of each of the 27 EU Member States with countries outside the EU. In other words, the EU is considered as a single trading entity and trade flows are measured into and out of the area, but not within it.
The United Kingdom is considered as an extra-EU partner country for the EU for the whole period covered by this article. However, the United Kingdom was still part of the internal market until the end of the transitory period (31 December 2020), meaning that data on trade with the United Kingdom were still based on statistical concepts applicable to trade between the EU Member States. Consequently, while imports from any other extra-EU trade partner are grouped by country of origin, the United Kingdom data reflected the country of consignment.
Methodology
According to the EU concepts and definitions, extra-EU trade statistics (trade between EU Member States and non-EU countries) do not record exchanges involving goods in transit, placed in a customs warehouse or given temporary admission (for trade fairs, temporary exhibitions, tests, etc.). This is known as 'special trade'. The partner is the country of final destination of the goods for exports and the country of origin for imports.
Unit of measure
Trade values are expressed in millions or billions (1 000 millions) of euros. They correspond to the statistical value, i.e. to the amount which would be invoiced in the event of sale or purchase at the national border of the reporting country. It is called a FOB value (free on board) for exports and a CIF value (cost, insurance, freight) for imports.
Context
Trade is an important indicator of Europe's prosperity and place in the world. The bloc is deeply integrated into global markets both for the products it sources and the exports it sells. The EU trade policy is one of the main pillars of the EU's relations with the rest of the world.
Because the 27 EU Member States share a single market and a single external border, they also have a single trade policy. EU Member States speak and negotiate collectively, both in the World Trade Organisation, where the rules of international trade are agreed and enforced, and with individual trading partners. This common policy enables them to speak with one voice in trade negotiations, maximising their impact in such negotiations. This is even more important in a globalised world in which economies tend to cluster together in regional groups.
The openness of the EU's trade regime has meant that the EU is the biggest player on the global trading scene and remains a good region to do business with. Thanks to the ease of modern transport and communications, it is now easier to produce, buy and sell goods around the world which gives European companies of every size the potential to trade outside Europe.
