Climate change: How hot cities could be in 2050 (2024)

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Climate change: How hot cities could be in 2050 (1)Image source, Getty Images

London could feel as hot as Barcelona by 2050, with Edinburgh's climate more like Paris, Leeds feeling like Melbourne and Cardiff like Montevideo.

That's from a study looking at how a 2C temperature increase could change the world's 520 major cities.

And that's not as good as it might sound.

More than a fifth, including Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, will experience conditions big cities haven't seen before, the Crowther Lab says.

London could suffer from the type of extreme drought that hit Barcelona in 2008 - when it was forced to import drinking water from France at a cost of £20 million.

The 2C rise by 2050 is comparing the present day to what temperatures were in the "pre-industrial period" - usually considered to be between the years 1850 and 1900 - when fossil-fuel burning hadn't yet changed the climate.

That temperature increase would result in the average UK temperature during summer's hottest month increasing by about six degrees to 27C.

Scientists hope pairing up cities will help people visualise the impact climate change could have within their own lifetimes.

"History has repeatedly shown us that data and facts alone do not inspire humans to change their beliefs or act," lead author Jean-Francois Bastin said.

The study, published in the journal PLOS One, suggests summers and winters in Europe will get warmer, with average increases of 3.5C and 4.7C respectively.

It's the equivalent to a city shifting 620 miles (1,000km) further south - with those furthest away from the equator being most affected.

Will the world really get 2C warmer?

Governments around the world have pledged to limit rising temperatures to 1.5C by 2050.

The global temperature has already increased by 1C above pre-industrial levels, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says.

And at the current rate of warming - 0.2C per decade - global warming will reach 1.5C between 2030 and 2052.

Image source, Getty Images

The UN body has warned that exceeding 1.5C warming will push us into "a highly uncertain world" - adding that "the current global commitments are not sufficient to prevent temperature rise above 2C, let alone 1.5C".

It estimates that under current national commitments, average temperature increases will range from 2.9C to 3.4C by 2100.

To keep us below 1.5C, the panel says carbon emissions need to be cut by 45% by 2030, and reach net zero by 2050.

'Outside of human experience'

So this study's projections are actually quite optimistic, imagining a future where action has been taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Its authors worked from a scenario where emissions peak in 2040 and then begin to decline.

The report predicts that three quarters of the world's major cities will experience dramatic climate shifts under those conditions.

"This study helps to put climate change in the context of human experience - and more importantly, shows that many places will see entirely new climates that are outside of current human experience," said Professor Richard Betts, from the Met Office Hadley Centre, who was commenting on the study.

Image source, Getty Images

The University of Reading's Professor Mike Lockwood warned about the damage that could be done to infrastructure.

"Bringing Barcelona's climate to London sounds like it could be a good thing - if you don't suffer from asthma or have a heart condition, that is - except London clay shrinks and is brittle if it gets too dry and then swells and expands when very wet.

"As ever, there is destructive and unforeseen devil in the details of climate change."

Europe has experienced extremes already this summer, with two months' worth of rainfall falling in a day in some parts of the UK, followed by a heatwave made five times more likely because of climate change.

Image source, Getty Images

Professor Gabi Hegerl, from the University of Edinburgh, said this study "doesn't capture individual events like unprecedented heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall or flooding".

She added: "Also, sea level rise will add to the difficulties faced by many of these cities."

It's not good news - but it's important not to feel overwhelmed by the scale of the climate crisis.

And if you do feel a bit anxious about the future, here are some tips on being a bit more eco-friendly in every day life.

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Climate change: How hot cities could be in 2050 (2024)

FAQs

How hot cities could be in 2050? ›

By 2050, nearly 970 cities could experience average summer highs of 35C, impacting 1.6 billion urban residents, according to the report.

How much will the climate warm by 2050? ›

Since 1880, average global temperatures have increased by about 1 degrees Celsius (1.7° degrees Fahrenheit). Global temperature is projected to warm by about 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7° degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050 and 2-4 degrees Celsius (3.6-7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.

How many people will be affected by climate change by 2050? ›

This climate migration is expected to surge in coming decades with forecasts from international thinktank the IEP predicting that 1.2 billion people could be displaced globally by 2050 due to climate change and natural disasters.

Where will be the safest place to live in 2050? ›

In examining a progressively worsening climate, Scenario 8.5, the safest counties in 2050 become:
  • McKinley County, New Mexico.
  • Conejos County, Colorado.
  • Summit County, Colorado.
  • duch*esne County, Utah.
  • Saguache County, Colorado.
  • Spokane County, Washington.
  • Emery County, Utah.
  • Eagle County, Colorado.
Mar 23, 2023

What will cities be like in 2050? ›

Population: 2050

City: 2050 will be more dense, larger and older. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, United Nations, Pew Research and other sources, the U.S. will grow to 438 million people by 2050—up 35% from our 2017 population of 326 million. (Global population grows to 9.7 billion by 2050.)

What will be uninhabitable by 2050? ›

Future Hot Spots

The most vulnerable areas include South Asia, the Persian Gulf, and the Red Sea by around 2050; and Eastern China, parts of Southeast Asia, and Brazil by 2070. A prototype wet-bulb globe temperature forecast map for the Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina region.

How hot will Florida be in 20 years? ›

Historical and Projected Temperature Trends in Florida

In the next 20 years, average summer temperatures are projected to rise above 83°F under both moderate and high emissions scenarios.

How hot will Texas be in 2050? ›

AUSTIN (KXAN) — The Fifth National Climate Assessment was released this week and found that Austin can expect 100-degree days to double by 2050, and perhaps even triple by the end of the century if global greenhouse gas emissions go unchecked.

What will Earth be like in 2050? ›

In 2050, the world will be vastly different from what we know today, as a result of the integration of whole range of technologies, including: quantum computing, metaverse, augmented reality, nanotechnology, human brain-computer interfaces, driverless technology, artificial intelligence, workplace automation, robotics ...

How bad will climate change be? ›

Key U.S. projections

By 2100, the average U.S. temperature is projected to increase by about 3°F to 12°F, depending on emissions scenario and climate model. An increase in average temperatures worldwide implies more frequent and intense extreme heat events, or heat waves.

How much longer will Earth be habitable for humans? ›

Roughly 1.3 billion years from now, "humans will not be able to physiologically survive, in nature, on Earth" due to sustained hot and humid conditions. In about 2 billion years, the oceans may evaporate when the sun's luminosity is nearly 20% more than it is now, Kopparapu said.

How bad is climate change in 2024? ›

According to NCEI's Global Annual Temperature Outlook, there is a 22% chance that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record and a 99% chance that it will rank in the top five. January saw a record-high monthly global ocean surface temperature for the 10th consecutive month.

Which US state is safest from climate change? ›

These five states are the best prepared for climate change.
  • Minnesota. While it might be known for its cold winters, Minnesota is well-equipped to handle climate change. ...
  • Illinois. Like Minnesota, Illinois benefits from its regional placement. ...
  • Rhode Island. ...
  • Maine. ...
  • Wyoming. ...
  • California. ...
  • Florida. ...
  • Utah.
Jul 15, 2022

What is the best state to live in in 2050? ›

Minnesota

Minnesota is one of the best states to move to avoid climate change. By 2050, only six days per year are expected to be dangerously hot. That's 15 times fewer dangerous heat days than are expected in the state of Mississippi!

Will there be a mass extinction in 2050? ›

The results are bleak: the supercomputer says 10 percent of all plant and animal species will disappear by 2050, and 27 percent of vertebrate diversity will vanish by 2100. Yeah, that's over a quarter of our animals gone in about 75 years.

How hot will the Earth be in 3000? ›

By the year 3000, the warming range is 1.9°C to 5.6°C. While surface temperatures approach equilibrium relatively quickly, sea level continues to rise for many centuries.

How hot will Los Angeles be in 2050? ›

By 2050, people in Los Angeles are projected to experience an average of about 26 days per year over 92.6ºF. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves, even in places with cooler average temperatures. See more information on heat risk.

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