Canadian Housing Market Report Nov. 16th, 2023 | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca (2024)

Note: Data sourced from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)

Canada

Home prices in Canada continue to rise at a steady pace, with the national average hitting $656,625 in October 2023. This represents a 2% year-over-year increase and a 0.2% month-over-month increase. While this growth is moderate, it defies many expectations of a decrease in home prices and shows that the Canadian real estate market remains strong and resilient.

Breaking down these numbers by province, we can see that British Columbia continues to have the highest average home price at $968,786. This represents a 4% year-over-year increase and a 0.2% month-over-month increase. Neighboring Alberta also saw strong growth, with an average home price of $455,891, a 6% year-over-year increase and a 0.2% month-over-month increase.

In the Atlantic provinces, Nova Scotia saw the largest monthly increase in average home prices at $419,717, an 8% year-over-year increase and a 4.5% month-over-month increase. New Brunswick also experienced strong growth with an average home price of $299,508, a 12% year-over-year increase and a 4% month-over-month increase, the largest annual increase in prices.

Home prices remain higher year-over-year in nine out of ten Canadian provinces, while home prices are down monthly in four out of ten provinces. Let's dive deeper into the latest Canada housing market update for October 2023.

SNLR

Provincial housing markets across Canada are tightening, with the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of seven provinces increasing compared to last month. The SNLR measures the balance between supply and demand in the housing market. A ratio above 60% is considered a seller's market, while below 40% is a buyer's market.

The provinces with the highest SNLRs in October 2023 were Alberta, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick, indicating strong demand for housing and a seller's market. Saskatchewan saw a significant increase in its SNLR this month, jumping from 64% to 74%.

Ontario was the only province with a buyer's market in October 2023, as its SNLR sits at 37%. This is slightly higher than last month's 34%, but still indicates a buyer's market. In contrast, Quebec has a balanced market with an SNLR of 52%, showing a fairly even balance between supply and demand.

Nova Scotia also continues to have a seller's market with an SNLR of 64%, indicating strong demand for housing in the province. PEI saw a slight decrease in its SNLR from 58% to 55%, moving it into a more balanced market. Newfoundland was the only other province to see a decline in its SNLR this month.

Overall, the Canadian real estate market remains resilient with steady growth in home prices and tightening markets across most provinces.

Today’s Mortgage Rates

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Canada

Canada’s average home price in October 2023 was $656,625, a slight 0.2% increase from last month and up by 2% year-over-year. While that’s still 10% lower than what it was in May 2023, home prices remain resilient even as some housing markets flip into buyer’s market territory.

Nationally, there were 35,410 home sales during the month of October 2023, a 5% increase year-over-year. Canada’s MLS Benchmark Price, which measures the price of a “typical” home in Canada, was $745,800 in October 2023.

Falling home prices, in some areas of the country, can be attributed to Bank of Canada rate hikes in both June and July 2023, resulting in a cumulative rise in interest rates by 50 basis points. This made borrowing more expensive, including the cost of mortgages, which reduces demand for homes as affordability decreases. Decreasing demand due to higher interest rates has a downward impact on Canadian home prices. While there wasn’t another rate hike in October 2023, WOWA’s interest rate forecast predicts that there won’t be any relief from current high rates until early 2024.

For the month of October 2023, Canada’s sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) was 49.5%. The current 49.5% SNLR signals a balanced market, which means that there is balanced competition among buyers for properties. Canada’s SNLR has been decreasing on a monthly basis since April 2023, when it reached over 67%. However, most provinces are seeing an increase in SNLRs this month.

Ontario

One of the provinces with the largest impact on Canada's real estate market is Ontario. The average home price in Ontario was $855,990 in October 2023, a surprising 0.5% increase from last month and a 3% increase from last year. That’s despite Ontario remaining in buyer’s market territory for the past few months, which means there is more supply than demand. Even with this oversupply, Ontario still saw an increase in home prices.

The average home sold price in the GTA was $1,125,928 for October 2023, representing an increase of 3% year-over-year and an increase of 0.6% month-over-month. GTA home sales are down 6% year-over-year, with 4,646 transactions in October. That makes up 13% of all home sales in Canada this month. That’s up from the 11% of all Canadian home sales that the GTA accounted for last month. The GTA had a low SNLR of 32%, which favours buyers.

When it comes to the housing market in Ontario, let's take a closer look at some interesting trends. Mississauga’s housing market had a strong October 2023, with Mississauga home prices increasing 8% in just one month to $1,106,263. That’s up by 12% year-over-year.

Neighbouring Brampton instead saw its average home price fall by 4% from last month to $999,458, down 0.4% year-over-year. Over in Hamilton, home prices are up 1.6% monthly and largely unchanged year-over-year to $789,040, while Ottawa home prices are down 2% monthly and up 6% annually to $660,836.

Kitchener-Waterloo Region has seen prices rise 1% monthly and annually to $767,848. Oshawa home prices are up 6% monthly and up 3% annually to $804,047.

British Columbia

Quebec

Quebec saw a slight decrease in home prices this month. Quebec’s average home price was $466,319 in October 2023, down 2% from last month and up by 5% year-over-year.

The Montreal housing market saw prices both rise 4% annually and fall 2.5% monthly, to $578,399 for October 2023.

Atlantic Canada

The Atlantic provinces continue to see steady growth in their real estate markets. With affordable housing and a growing economy, these provinces are becoming attractive options for home buyers. The region saw some of the largest monthly price increases in the country this month.

Home prices in New Brunswick increased 4% compared to last month to $299,508, up 12% year-over-year. That’s the largest annual price increase seen out of all provinces.

Meanwhile, Nova Scotia’s average home price of $419,717 is up 4.5% from last month, and up by 8% year-over-year, making it the largest monthly price increase out of all provinces this month.

PEI home prices are down 0.3% monthly and almost unchanged year-over-year to $380,961.

Over in Newfoundland, home prices are down 3% month-over-month and down 2% year-over-year to $281,525.

The Prairies

The benchmark home prices by province for the month of October 2023 show interesting patterns and changes in different regions of Canada. While some provinces have shown a decline in monthly prices, others have seen an increase. Similarly, annual price changes also vary across provinces. The benchmark home price measures the value of a "typical" home in a particular area and provides an indication of the real estate market's overall performance.

In British Columbia, the benchmark home price stands at $981,700 with a slight decrease of 0.7% compared to the previous month. However, on an annual basis, the province has seen a 3% increase in benchmark home prices.

Meanwhile, Alberta has experienced a monthly price change of 0.1%, bringing its benchmark home price to $485,500. The province has also seen a significant annual increase of 7% in its benchmark home price.

Saskatchewan's benchmark home price currently stands at $327,300 after a slight decrease of 0.2% in the month. On an annual basis, benchmark home prices have increased by 2% in the province.

The province of Ontario has seen a larger decline in its monthly benchmark home price with a decrease of 2%, bringing it to $879,300. However, on an annual basis, the province has seen a modest increase of 0.6% in benchmark home prices.

In Quebec, the benchmark home price stands at $468,300 after a minor decrease of 0.1% in the month. On an annual basis, home prices have increased by 4% in the province.

Nova Scotia has experienced a monthly price change of 1%, bringing its benchmark home price to $402,500. The province has also seen a significant annual increase of 9% in home prices.

New Brunswick's benchmark home price currently stands at $293,100 after a slight increase of 0.2% in the month. On an annual basis, home prices have increased by 7% in the province.

Similarly, PEI has seen a small decrease of 0.3% in its monthly benchmark home price, bringing it to $364,100. On an annual basis, the province has seen a modest increase of 2% in home prices.

Finally, in Newfoundland, there has been a decline of 1% in the monthly benchmark home price, bringing it to $292,400. However, on an annual basis, the province has seen a 4% increase in home prices.

Overall, these numbers reflect the varying real estate markets across different provinces in Canada. While some have experienced steady increases or minor fluctuations, others have seen larger changes in home prices.

Breakdown By Region

Glossary and Definitions

MLS® HPI: The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) is an index by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) that tracks the prices of homes in a neighborhood. It allows Canadians to quickly compare home prices across Canada and between periods of time without having to account for specific features of a property. Unlike market prices, which can fluctuate from month to month based on seasonal dynamics, the HPI provides a stable view tracks trends across a longer period of time. The HPI is reviewed every year in May to adjust for changes in the real estate marketplace.

MLS® HPI Benchmark Price: The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Benchmark Price is the HPI translated into a real-world price number.

Strata Insurance: Strata insurance is insurance used by a strata like a condominium to covers damages to common areas and assets and liability to the strata. It can also include fixtures built or installed as part of the original construction of each unit, even though these may not be common structures. The insurance can cover:

• Buildings and structures associated with the strata including common areas such as the roof, parking garages, driveways, gyms, pools, etc.
• Liability for any property damage or bodily injury suffered on strata property
• Any fixtures that are part of the "standard unit" or original construction of each unit

Strata insurance does not usually include personal items and appliances that are part of a condo unit. It also does not cover the damages made by individual unit owners, such as in the case of water damage caused by a unit owner. These are usually covered by personal condo insurance.

Property types

Detached home: A detached home is your standard single-family home. It is a residential building that stands alone and is separately titled or legally a single unit.

Semi-detached home: A semi-detached home is similar to a detached home, except it shares a wall with another home. This pair of homes must make up an independent building and each should be separately titled or legally two separate units. There can only be two homes in a semi-detached building.

Townhouses: A townhouse is the middle between a detached/semi-detached home and a condo apartment. Like detached and semi-detached homes, they are often single-family units that have their own land and may be attached to other units. However, like condo apartments, they typically have to pay co-ownership fees for maintenance and may share some common features with their neighbors.

Condo apartment: This category includes all apartments and condominiums. These are complexes of residential units with common areas such as hallways, parking lots, stairwells, etc. They can be low-rise, mid-rise, or high-rise buildings. Unlike townhouses, there are no parts of the lot (the land of the building) where access is reserved for only one owner or occupant. There can be privately owned units and spaces inside the building.

Plexes are multi-story buildings with two to four individual units, usually one on each floor. They are a mainstay in Montreal and other cities in Quebec. Each unit is usually individually accessible via an external entrance with higher floors connected by staircases.

Property Classes

Freeholds: A freehold is any property where the owner owns both the house and the land it is built on. Common freehold property types include: detached, semi-detached, some townhouses, and farmland.

Condominiums: A condominium or condo is any property where the owner owns the home (or unit) but shares ownership of the land and other improvements with a condominium corporation. Common condominium property types include condo apartments and some townhouses.

Leasehold: Leasehold describes the situation where different entities own the land and the structure built on the land. Owner of the buildings has leased the land and pay rent to their landlord while owning the building on the land.