This summer is already marked bymegadroughts andextreme heat waves across the globe. A new report on extreme heat events from the First Street Foundation, a New York-based nonprofit that studies risks associated with climate change, shows how this summer is just the beginning.
The 6th National Climate Risk Assessment: Hazardous Heat, released on August 15, uses a climate model to predict more than 100 million Americans will live in an “extreme heat belt” within the next 30 years. In these areas, residents could face at least one day per year with a heat index of 125 degrees Fahrenheit.
Theheat index is calculatedby combining the actual air temperature with the humidity or dew point temperature to determine how it feels outside. A heat index of 125 degrees is at the top of the National Weather Service’sextreme danger level.
The future extreme heat belts cover avast swath of the continental United States, with one region stretching from the Gulf Coast up to southern Wisconsin. Additional extreme heat belts stretch across the interior southwest and southeast coast.
[Related: Heat is the silent killer we should all be worried about.]
According to the report, communities will feel the sharpest heat increase in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Presently, Miami-Dade County can expect seven days with a heat index of 103 degrees. By 2053, that number could rise to 34 days per year. The report allows users toinput their addresses into the Risk Factorand see how their property will be impacted by extreme heat by 2053.
Even with technological advances, predicting temperatures in a long-range forecast is particularly difficult. This report, however, usesclimatological modeling instead of meteorological modelingto create a long-range temperature forecast. Tobest calculate a property’s current heat exposure,the team used land surface temperatures, tree canopy cover, impervious surfaces like roads or sidewalks, green space, and proximity to a large body of water. Those measurements are then adjusted with the predicted emissions scenarios for the next three decades.
“Increasing temperatures are broadly discussed as averages, but the focus should be on the extension of the extreme tail events expected in a given year,” said Matthew Eby, founder, and CEO of First Street Foundationvia press release. “We need to be prepared for the inevitable, that a quarter of the country will soon fall inside the Extreme Heat Belt with temperatures exceeding 125°F and the results will be dire.”
Extreme heat events are among the most dangerous natural hazards, with the Union of Concerned Scientists referring to May through October as the“danger season.”In summer 2021, the Pacific Northwest saw three days of record-breaking temperatures that officials estimate was the cause ofat least 100 fatalities. Extreme heat events can also lead to prolonged power outages fromstrained electrical grids, causeroads to buckle, and evenmelt or lift airport runways.
Laura Baisas
Laura is a science news writer, covering a wide variety of subjects, but she is particularly fascinated by all things aquatic, paleontology, nanotechnology, and exploring how science influences daily life. Laura is a proud former resident of the New Jersey shore, a competitive swimmer, and a fierce defender of the Oxford comma.
FAQs
However, what will most notably change in the U.S. is that by 2050 – the country will all around be noticeably warmer. Summers will be unbearably longer and winters will be shorter, and while that sounds like a dream for those suffering from seasonal depression – it isn't good news for the United States as a whole.
What is the heat prediction for 2050? ›
Since 1880, average global temperatures have increased by about 1 degrees Celsius (1.7° degrees Fahrenheit). Global temperature is projected to warm by about 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7° degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050 and 2-4 degrees Celsius (3.6-7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.
What states will be in the extreme heat Belt? ›
A map showing counties expected to experience heat indices above 125°F by 2053. There is a large "Extreme heat belt" covering much of LA, AR, MO, IL, and IN. The southern Atlantic coast (VA, NC, SC) will also experience extreme heat, as will parts of CA and AZ.
Will 100 million Americans be in extreme heat belt region by 2053? ›
More than 100 million Americans may experience a heat index higher than 125 degrees by 2053, according to a study published Monday by First Street Foundation. The 125-degree heat index is significant in that it marks the beginning of the National Weather Service's highest category for heat, known as "Extreme Danger."
What will happen in 2050 predictions? ›
The world's demographic will be significantly older in 2050, accelerated by advances in healthcare and disease prevention. The “old” 65–85-year-olds will be significantly more active than today, which also means that they will be active and wealthier consumers than other market segments.
What will happen in 2050 with climate change? ›
Climate shifts like heat waves could restrict the ability of people to work outdoor, and, in extreme cases, put their lives at risk. Under a 2050 climate scenario developed by NASA, continuing growth of the greenhouse emission at today's rate could lead to additional global warming of about 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050.
Where will it be too hot to live in 2050? ›
Future Hot Spots
The most vulnerable areas include South Asia, the Persian Gulf, and the Red Sea by around 2050; and Eastern China, parts of Southeast Asia, and Brazil by 2070. A prototype wet-bulb globe temperature forecast map for the Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina region.
Will the world be livable in 2050? ›
Today, just one percent of the planet falls within so-called “barely liveable” hot zones: by 2050, the ratio could rise to almost twenty percent. In 2100, temperatures could rise so high that spending a few hours outside some major capital cities of South Asia and East Asia could be lethal.
Will Texas be livable in 2050? ›
Limited resources like water and energy will be in greater demand, while our critical infrastructure and diverse ecosystems sustain additional stress. At the same time, we face compounding threats from extreme heat, inland and coastal flooding, wildfire, drought, infectious disease spread, and other hazards.
What states will become too hot to live in? ›
If warming of the planet continues to 3 C above pre-industrial levels, the researchers concluded, heat and humidity levels that surpass human tolerance would begin to affect the Eastern Seaboard and the middle of the United States — from Florida to New York and from Houston to Chicago.
Historical and Projected Temperature Trends in Florida
In the next 20 years, average summer temperatures are projected to rise above 83°F under both moderate and high emissions scenarios.
How hot will Florida be in 2050? ›
The Panhandle is expected to experience roughly 30-40 more extreme heat days per year. The areas of Florida expected to see the greatest increase in extreme heat are inland portions of the Peninsula, with 40+ more extreme heat days per year by 2050 under a high emissions scenario.
What regions will be uninhabitable by 2050? ›
Study authors said much of Africa, parts of Central and South America and South Asia are “hot spots” for the worst harms to people and ecosystems.
Will Texas be too hot to live in? ›
(TNS) Over the next 30 years, Texas and other parts of the central U.S. are at risk of being exposed to extreme he—at — temperatures exceeding 125 degrees. The human body can no longer tolerate heat at that levels.
Who is #1 in climate action globally? ›
The University of Tasmania is officially the tertiary sector's world-leader in taking climate action, with the prestigious Times Higher Education (THE) Impact Rankings rating us number one in climate action globally for 2023.
How hot will the US be in 2100? ›
Across the 247 cities included in the analysis, their 2100 analogues are 437 miles south. The average summer warming by 2100 across all cities is 8 °F. And 16 U.S. cities have no 2100 analogues on the continent—their future summer conditions are more similar to locations in the Middle East and Egypt.
How hot will the Earth be in 3000? ›
By the year 3000, the warming range is 1.9°C to 5.6°C. While surface temperatures approach equilibrium relatively quickly, sea level continues to rise for many centuries.
