Buying down mortgage rates wasn’t worth it in 2023, experts say, and won’t be worth it in 2024 (2024)

As mortgage rates launched to 23-year highs in 2023, more homebuyers paid extra discount points to buy down their mortgage rate.

But it may not have been worth it.

According to Freddie Mac, more than half of US borrowers paid discount points last year, a substantial jump from recent years, as they contended with the double whammy of elevated home prices and mortgage rates in the 7% range. Also known as rate buydowns, discount points are mortgage interest you pay upfront at closing to get a small percentage knocked off your rate.

Read more: Should you pay for mortgage discount points? 4 tips on how to decide.

Despite homebuyers in 2023 buying more points, Freddie Mac found that the interest rate differential was negligible. Through November, the average rate for purchase borrowers paying discount points was 6.61%, versus 6.69% for those who didn’t pay points. That’s only an 8 basis point difference.

"This result seems to suggest that paying discount points may not be worth it from the consumers’ point of view," Freddie Mac researchers wrote.

The report sampled borrowers with credit scores of at least 740 and a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio between 75 and 80. About 59% of purchase borrowers paid discount points in 2023, compared with 31% and 54% of purchase borrowers in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

The trend was even more pronounced among people refinancing their mortgages. More than 82% of cash-out refinancers and almost 60% of non-cash-out refinancers chose to buy down their rate.

The results underscore how financially hard-pressed some borrowers may have felt last year as rates surged toward 7%, with more folks looking for a last shot of relief through incentives such as rate buydowns.

"As interest rates have increased I think borrowers are looking for ways that they can try to mitigate those costs," Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac, told Yahoo Finance. "When they are paying points it's reflective of the very high interest rate environment we are in relative to recent years."

'Discount points may not be worth it'

Discount points are offered by lenders as an upfront fee that is calculated as a percentage of your loan amount. By paying points, you pay more upfront but can receive a lower rate in the long term, which also helps reduce your monthly payment.

One point typically costs 1% of the loan amount. On a $400,000 loan, purchasing one point translates to $4,000 owed at closing. Discount points typically take between 0.125% and 0.25% off the interest rate. Meaning a mortgage rate of 6.75% would inch down — at most — to 6.5% for the duration of the loan term.

"To earn that [upfront payment] back, it would take many many years," Kiefer said. "It could be that borrowers were really payment-focused, especially those that had any sensitivity to rates."

According to Jeffrey Ruben, president of WSFS Mortgage, the growing trend in purchasing discount points could have been driven, in part, by homebuilders who had carved up most of the inventory available for sale last year.

Read more: 5 strategies to get the lowest mortgage rates in 2024

At least 62% of builders offered sales incentives of all forms in January, a measure which has remained between 60% and 62% since October, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Mortgage rate buydowns are still a top incentive with some home developers.

For instance, Toll Brothers (TOL)currently offers a first-year rate as low as 3.99% in its 3/2/1 buydown program on select homes. Rates would be reduced 3% the first year, 2% the second and 1% on the third year. By the fourth year, the rate would increase to 6.99% and remain fixed through the end of the 30-year term.

For buyers in a pinch, or at threat of being priced out, that could be an attractive deal.

"I think it was led a lot by homebuilders, as a way of making home affordability more available for people," Ruben told Yahoo Finance. "It’s like discounting their products by using some funds to buy down the mortgage, (but) keeping the price elevated. Making that an option for buyers is a good tool for them to get people into homes."

Ruben added: "Builders had and continue to have a captive audience."

'In many cases, it's a waste of money'

Even though rates are nowhere near the ultra-lows of the pandemic-era, they are slowly coming down from the highs recorded in 2023.

So far, rates have fallen over a full percentage point from October 2023 and have settled within the mid-6% range as the new year has kicked off. As long as inflation remains muted and there aren’t economic surprises, Freddie Mac predicts mortgage rates should soften throughout the year while sticking above the 6% range.

If that holds true, some housing experts say it really won’t be worth it to indulge in purchasing discount points.

"I have this discussion several times per day, every day," Jason Sharon, president of Home Loans Inc., told Yahoo Finance. "Historically, I have not recommended discount points in a year or so because in many cases they are a waste of money."

Buying down mortgage rates wasn’t worth it in 2023, experts say, and won’t be worth it in 2024 (2)

For instance, last week Sharon quoted a client at a rate of 7.125% with no fees. If his client wanted to buy the rate down to 6.75%, it would cost $1,348 in discount points. The monthly savings would amount to $83 per month, yielding a 17-month payback time.

"As long as he keeps his loan for at least 17 months, he will come out ahead," Sharon said. "If he refi’s or sells in less than 17 months, purchasing discount points is a waste of money."

Another option he gave his client was to spend $4,800 to buy the rate down to 6%. That would extend the breakeven point to 27 months. In other words, it would take more than two years to recapture that nearly $5,000 upfront cost.

Sharon added: "I just don’t think it’s a good move. However, I leave it up to the client. I educate and serve."

Gabriella Cruz-Martinez is a personal finance and housing reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @__gabriellacruz.

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Buying down mortgage rates wasn’t worth it in 2023, experts say, and won’t be worth it in 2024 (2024)

FAQs

Should mortgage rates go down in 2024? ›

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by the end of 2025.

Are rate buydowns worth it? ›

An interest rate buydown, though, could help. These allow buyers or other involved parties — like the lender or seller — to pay for a lower interest rate. This can reduce the amount of interest the buyer pays, both monthly and over the long haul, considerably.

Is it smart to buy down points on a mortgage? ›

In a low-rate environment, paying points to get the absolute best rate makes sense. You will never want to refinance that loan again. But when rates are higher, it would actually be better not to buy down the rate.

Will mortgage rates go back down 2023? ›

After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2024.

Will 2024 be a better time to buy a house? ›

Most experts expect home prices to continue to increase in 2024, which will continue to make homeownership inaccessible to many. However, some forecast the prices will drop. Here's a handful of predictions. For context, home prices rose by 7.1% in 2023, according to Fannie Mae.

How high could mortgage rates go by 2025? ›

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Thursday was 6.99%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo's model expects 5.8%, and the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates 5.5%.

Is it better to put more money down or buy down interest rate? ›

Whether you should buy down your interest rate depends on the break-even point and the savings that come with it. Your break-even point is the number of years, months, or mortgage payments it will take before buying mortgage points is worth it.

What are the cons to buying down interest rate? ›

Cons Explained
  • Ongoing affordability: Once the initial rate period ends, your monthly payments could be substantially higher than what you're used to. ...
  • Availability: Your ability to take advantage of a buydown may be limited by the type of property involved or the type of mortgage loan for which you're applying.

How much does it cost for a 2:1 buydown? ›

The cost of the 2-1 buydown is the sum of the unpaid interest for the first two years. Over the first two years, Joe has “saved” $9,323.18 ($6,167 + $3,156) of interest. This amount is the total amount the seller has a requirement to pay at closing to secure the 2-1 buydown.

Why does it take 30 years to pay off $150,000 loan even though you pay $1000 a month? ›

The interest rate on a loan directly affects the duration of a loan. Note: The interest rate is calculated using the hit and trial method. Therefore, it takes 30 years to complete the loan of $150,000 with $1,000 per monthly installment at a 0.585% monthly interest rate.

When not to buy mortgage points? ›

If you don't plan to refinance any time soon: Generally, it's not worth paying for points for a lower rate if you plan to refinance to a different rate before the breakeven point. If you know you'll keep the mortgage for a long time, then points could still help you save.

How many points does your credit score drop when you buy a house? ›

Typically, the hard credit pull required to get a mortgage loan will decrease your credit score by about 5 points. Once you actually get the loan, you might have a short-term dip of 15 – 40 points. If you consistently make monthly payments on time, though, you'll likely see your credit score recover and even improve.

Will mortgage rates ever be 3 again? ›

After all, higher rates equate to higher minimum payments. So, you may be wondering if, and when, mortgage rates might fall to 3% or lower again - and whether or not it's worth waiting to buy a home until they do. Although rates could fall to 3% again one day, it's not likely to happen any time soon.

What is the mortgage rate forecast for 2024? ›

We now forecast the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate to average 6.6% in 2024, and to average 6.1% in 2025.” National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. “The budget deficit remains high, and the various inflation metrics remain above the comfort level.

Where will mortgage rates be in 2025? ›

Here's where three experts predict mortgage rates are heading: Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: "Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%," says Haymore. "By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower."

How low will mortgage rates go in 2025? ›

Here's where three experts predict mortgage rates are heading: Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: "Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%," says Haymore. "By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower."

Will interest rates go down in 2024 for cars? ›

Auto loan rates are expected to stop rising and possibly start descending in 2024, but they'll likely remain elevated in comparison to recent years (alongside the broader interest rates environment).

Are CD rates going up or down in 2024? ›

"CD rates will most likely drop and drop substantially in 2024," says Robert Johnson, professor of finance at Heider College of Business at Creighton University. "The biggest reason is the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year."

What is a good mortgage rate? ›

As of May 14, 2024, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.05%, 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.73%, 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.21%, and 10-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.05%. Average rates for other loan types include 6.91% for an FHA 30-year fixed mortgage and 7.13% for a jumbo 30-year fixed mortgage.

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