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If you’ve been unfortunate enough to have spent some time on LinkedIn in recent weeks you will have noticed a flurry of investment research posting from earnest hustle merchants.
Alphaville’s love and affection for our readers knows no limits, so as a special service to you this Christmas we have once again been collecting our own sellside and buyside word salads 2024 outlooks, to save you from having to brave the humblebrag jungles. Update: we’ve now added more than a dozen new 2024 reports at the bottom.
Where possible we’ve added links to public reports; elsewhere they are either embedded or direct-link PDFs. In almost all cases these are reports that are already widely circulating online, but if you are an irate head of research somewhere that wants us to take something down then send us an email. If you are an irate head of research who wants your opus magnum included then you can also email us.
To differentiate Alphaville from all those other lazy research round-up posts, we’ve this year adorned our links with some random words.
It should be noted that some of the predictions are already hilariously out of date, after the Federal Reserve last week pencilled in three interest rate cuts next year. Which says something about the transitory, futile nature of annual outlooks that no one will remember by the time November 2024 comes around.
And if that wasn’t enough to take all this with a pinch of salt, remember that this time last year 85 per cent of economists thought we’d be in a recession by now.
Anyway, on to the 2024 research dump!
JPMorgan Asset Management’s effort is actually quite good — an online and updated guide you can explore.
JPMorgan’s main global markets outlook is also as good as you’d expect from one of the best-staffed research departments on the street.
Ceci n’est pas une outlook report, says Man Group.
Bonds! Bonds! Bonds! says Pimco.
Here’s Goldman Sachs on the global economy, the US economy, the UK economy, artificial intelligence, dealmaking, 60-40 portfolios, and US stonks.
If that wasn’t enough Goldman, here is also Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s 2024 outlook.
State Street Global Advisors sees persistent uncertainty, sub-trend growth and a “year in flux”.
M&G Investments thinks interest rates are going down, but not by much (and predicts a “new era for active management,” lol)
“Flux” is also a favourite word of Lazard, whose 2024 outlook at least features pictures of pretty coastlines.
However, HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth goes for “complex”, the zany funsters. Here is also HSBC Asset Management.
Morgan Stanley’s global economic outlook explores Goldilocks rates and sees “tough choices” for investors in an “imperfect world” (as opposed to all those other years with easy choices and a perfect backdrop).
Surprise surprise, BlackRock thinks investors should put money to work.
Capital Group sees a “mixed picture”, which is as accurate as it is unhelpful.
“Opportunities” is another popular buzzword in every 2024 outlook. Allianz went ahead and slapped it in their headline.
In contrast, Vanguard sounds an Austrian note by predicting
“a return to sound money”.TS Lombard thinks “a lot can go wrong in 2024”. Thanks, Steve.
Invesco thinks this is a time for international stocks, small-caps, and family. Aww.
BNY Mellon has once again resisted the temptation to work in a Boney M reference.
Schroders is banging on about a “3D reset” again.
Charles Schwab predicts a “gradual U-shaped recovery composed of seemingly chaotic movements in economic data with turning points in policy rates and earnings growth.”
T Rowe Price sees “a world transformed”. (you can probably tell our energy is lagging now)
KKR says it is in a “glass half full” kinda mood.
Jim Reid 🤝 David Folkerts-Landau = Deutsche Bank’s 2024 outlook
UBS has also made an extra effort to make its various outlook pieces work online.
Apollo on private markets and US housing.
Bank of America’s Private Bank says 2024 will be “a foundational year in which investors are likely to enjoy the classic underpinnings of traditional asset allocation”, such as those provided by Bank of America’s Private Bank.
Franklin Templeton is lukewarm but likes “naturally diversifying ‘alternatives’ such as private assets”
RBC Capital Markets has a Q&A.
“The time to pivot will come in due course,” says Wells Fargo. Thanks.
Amundi has a nice picture of La Jument lighthouse in Brittany.
“Although geopolitics and the electoral landscape are likely to have a significant impact on markets in 2024, it is not currently possible to assign meaningful probabilities to potential outcomes,” BNP Paribas says. Great stuff.
Lombard Odier has ten convictions.
Wellington Management’s outlook is like a matryoshka doll of content.
Fidelity sees four ways forward, with cyclical recession the base case.
“The temptation was high to just repeat the investment strategy we laid out back in our June Mid-Year Outlook,” says Barclays Private Bank, which gets a point for honesty.
A outlook report for sovereign wealth funds. Norway FTW.
ING sees “no magic spell for a brighter world”.
2024 is going to be all about skirting risks and harvesting those nice fat yields, according to Legal & General Investment Management.
Alphaville is an inclusive place, so we thought we’d even throw the Australians a bone. Here’s Macquarie’s bearish 2024 outlook.
“Ready, set, slow” says TD Securities.
All that doom and gloom is not for Unlimited Funds, which sees a “stronger for longer” outlook for the US economy.
This year everything will be lower – whether it is growth, inflation and returns - according to AXA Investment Managers.
Pictet predicts a pause (but not an end) to US exceptionalism.
Cambridge Associates fancies long-short hedge funds, European direct lending, structured credit and the dollar, but sees a lot more VC down rounds coming.
THE GREAT NORMALISATION, says Julius Baer.
PwC is suffering from an acute case of “cautious optimism” - the only kind of emotion a consultancy is capable of.
NatWest sees “bIG qUeStIOns” looming for everyone. Answers seem scarce.
The Wells Fargo Investment Institute has five hot ideas for your portfolio this year.
As you’d expect, Nikko Asset Management also has several good overviews for Asian markets inn addition to the global stuff.
For a real estate angle to things, there’s LaSalle’s 2024 outlook.
Further reading:
— Are there too many banks? (Deutsche Bundesbank)
— Rating year-ahead reports on their stock picture choices (FTAV)
— Year-ahead investment outlook note or ChatGPT? Take the quiz (FTAV)
